D/ST anytime touchdownsĪtlanta Falcons D/ST Anytime Touchdown (+800 at Draftkings) Believe it or not, one factor is that he takes so many sacks - meaning a lower percentage of his dropbacks actually end up as pass attempts. But sometimes the number is just too high, and that's what my model says here, putting Howell at just 30.0 pass attempts on average. The Commanders figure to be losing to the Eagles, and if they fall behind, they're going to need Howell to pass. This is a situation where you might feel tempted to take the over no matter what. Sam Howell under 34.5 pass attempts (-117)

Plus, the Jets are favored - only the fifth time Wilson has been favored in a game as a starter - and that means they are less likely to be in desperate passing situations that yield interceptions. I sometimes think splits like that can be just noise, but the man/zone splits extend back to last season, too.

The Giants are a blitz-heavy man coverage defense under Wink Martindale, and I think that suits Wilson based on some stark splits. Zach Wilson under 0.5 interceptions (+102) Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise noted. Results from last week are at the bottom of the story. So come along for the ride and see how we fare diving deep into Sunday props. If there's an advantage to be found now, I think it's in small markets. It's my specialty, anyway: It's what I build statistical models around to try to find an edge. Those are efficient markets that have been bet into all week. If I'm placing bets on a Sunday, I'm not looking at full-game spreads or totals. NFL Week 8 last-minute bets: Best values on props, picks and more You have reached a degraded version of because you're using an unsupported version of Internet Explorer.įor a complete experience, please upgrade or use a supported browser

Nfl week 4 2024 best teaser bets